


*Table 1: Acquitted and Dismissed January 6 Defendants by Judicial Appointee
tab apt_display acquitted, col
tab apt_display dismissed, col
tab apt_display
tab GOP_judge acquitted, col
tab GOP_judge dismissed, col
tab GOP_judge


*Table 2: January 6 Defendants Adjudicated and Pardoned Before by Filing Year
tab file_year pardoned_before_adj, row


*Table 3: Bivariate Means for Dependent Variables across Party, President, and Individual Judge
table apt_display if !missing(prison_imp), statistic(mean prison_imposed imposed_days_incar)
table judge_last if !missing(prison_imp), statistic(mean prison_imposed imposed_days_incar) 
table GOP_judge if !missing(prison_imp), statistic(mean prison_imposed imposed_days_incar)
tab apt_display if !missing(prison_imp)
tab judge_last if !missing(prison_imp)
tab GOP_judge if !missing(prison_imp)


*Table 4: Models Predicting Whether Prison Was Imposed
*Basic: GOP
logit prison_imposed i.GOP  i.filing_month, cluster(judge_robust)
*AIC
estat ic

*Basic: Appointing President
logit prison_imposed i.apt_display i.filing_month, cluster(judge_robust)
*AIC
estat ic

*Charging Severity: GOP
logit prison_imposed i.GOP   highest ncharge_count  i.filing_month , cluster(judge_robust)
*AIC
estat ic

*Charging Severity: Appointing President
logit prison_imposed i.apt_display highest ncharge_count   i.filing_month, cluster(judge_robust)
*AIC
estat ic

*Early Cases Model: GOP
logit prison_imposed i.GOP highest ncharge_count  i.filing_month if file_year<2023 , cluster(judge_robust)
*AIC
estat ic

*Early Cases Model: Appointing President
logit prison_imposed i.apt_display highest ncharge_count  i.filing_month if file_year<2023, cluster(judge_robust)
*AIC
estat ic


*Table 5: Models Predicting Incarceration Length in Days
*Basic: GOP
nbreg imposed_days_incar i.GOP  i.filing_month, cluster(judge_robust)
*AIC
estat ic

*Basic: Appointing President
nbreg imposed_days_incar i.apt_display i.filing_month, cluster(judge_robust)
*AIC
estat ic

*Charging Severity: GOP
nbreg imposed_days_incar i.GOP highest ncharge_count   i.filing_month, cluster(judge_robust)
*AIC
estat ic

*Charging Severity: Appointing President
nbreg imposed_days_incar i.apt_display highest ncharge_count  i.filing_month, cluster(judge_robust)
*AIC
estat ic

*Early Cases Model: GOP
nbreg imposed_days_incar i.GOP highest ncharge_count   i.filing_month if file_year<2023, cluster(judge_robust)
*AIC
estat ic

*Early Cases Model: Appointing President
nbreg imposed_days_incar i.apt_display highest ncharge_count  i.filing_month if file_year<2023, cluster(judge_robust)
*AIC
estat ic


*Figure 1 (Individual Panes)
*Figure 1: Basic (Left Pane)
logit prison_imposed i.apt_display i.filing_month, cluster(judge_robust)
margins r.apt_display
marginsplot, recast(scatter) recastci(rspike) plotopts(mcolor(black) msymbol(circle) msize(small)) ciopts(lcolor(black))title("") subtitle("Basic", size(small) justification(center)) name(m1, replace) ytitle(Probability Prison is Imposed, size(small)) ylabel(-.5(.1).5, angle(horizontal) labsize(small) nogrid gmax gmin) xtitle("", size(small)) xlabel(1 "Biden" 2 "Obama" 3 "Bush II" 4 "Clinton" 5 "Reagan", labsize(small) nogrid ) yline(0, lcolor(red) lstyle(solid))

*Figure 1: Charging Severity (Center Pane)
logit prison_imposed i.apt_display  highest ncharge_count   i.filing_month, cluster(judge_robust)
margins r.apt_display
marginsplot, recast(scatter) recastci(rspike) plotopts(mcolor(black) msymbol(circle) msize(small)) ciopts(lcolor(black))title("") subtitle("Charging Severity", size(small) justification(center)) name(m1, replace) ytitle(Probability Prison is Imposed, size(small)) ylabel(-.5(.1).5, angle(horizontal) labsize(small) nogrid gmax gmin) xtitle("", size(small)) xlabel(1 "Biden" 2 "Obama" 3 "Bush II" 4 "Clinton" 5 "Reagan", labsize(small) nogrid ) yline(0, lcolor(red) lstyle(solid))


*Figure 1: Early Cases (Right Pane)
logit prison_imposed i.apt_display highest ncharge_count  i.filing_month if file_year<2023, cluster(judge_robust)
margins r.apt_display
marginsplot, recast(scatter) recastci(rspike) plotopts(mcolor(black) msymbol(circle) msize(small)) ciopts(lcolor(black))title("") subtitle("Early Cases", size(small) justification(center)) name(m1, replace) ytitle(Probability Prison is Imposed, size(small)) ylabel(-.5(.1).5, angle(horizontal) labsize(small) nogrid gmax gmin) xtitle("", size(small)) xlabel(1 "Biden" 2 "Obama" 3 "Bush II" 4 "Clinton" 5 "Reagan", labsize(small) nogrid ) yline(0, lcolor(red) lstyle(solid))


*Figure 2 (Individual Panes)
*Figure 2: Basic (Left Pane)
nbreg imposed_days_incar i.apt_display  i.filing_month, cluster(judge_robust)
margins r.apt_display
marginsplot, recast(scatter) recastci(rspike) plotopts(mcolor(black) msymbol(circle) msize(small)) ciopts(lcolor(black))title("") subtitle("Basic", size(small) justification(center)) name(m1, replace) ytitle(Incarceration Length in Days, size(small)) ylabel(-600(200)1400, angle(horizontal) labsize(small) nogrid gmax gmin) xtitle("", size(small)) xlabel(1 "Biden" 2 "Obama" 3 "Bush II" 4 "Clinton" 5 "Reagan", labsize(small) nogrid ) yline(0, lcolor(red) lstyle(solid))

*Figure 2: Charging Severity (Center Pane)
nbreg imposed_days_incar i.apt_display highest ncharge_count  i.filing_month, cluster(judge_robust)
margins r.apt_display
marginsplot, recast(scatter) recastci(rspike) plotopts(mcolor(black) msymbol(circle) msize(small)) ciopts(lcolor(black))title("") subtitle("Charging Severity", size(small) justification(center)) name(m1, replace) ytitle(Incarceration Length in Days, size(small)) ylabel(-600(200)1400, angle(horizontal) labsize(small) nogrid gmax gmin) xtitle("", size(small)) xlabel(1 "Biden" 2 "Obama" 3 "Bush II" 4 "Clinton" 5 "Reagan", labsize(small) nogrid ) yline(0, lcolor(red) lstyle(solid))

*Figure 2: Early Cases (Right Pane)
nbreg imposed_days_incar i.apt_display highest ncharge_count  i.filing_month if file_year<2023, cluster(judge_robust)
margins r.apt_display
marginsplot, recast(scatter) recastci(rspike) plotopts(mcolor(black) msymbol(circle) msize(small)) ciopts(lcolor(black))title("") subtitle("Early Cases", size(small) justification(center)) name(m1, replace) ytitle(Incarceration Length in Days, size(small)) ylabel(-600(200)1400, angle(horizontal) labsize(small) nogrid gmax gmin) xtitle("", size(small)) xlabel(1 "Biden" 2 "Obama" 3 "Bush II" 4 "Clinton" 5 "Reagan", labsize(small) nogrid ) yline(0, lcolor(red) lstyle(solid))


*APPENDIX A: Summary Statistics for the Dependent and Independent Variables
*Table A1
*all sentenced defendants table
summarize prison_imposed imposed_days_incar GOP highest ncharge_count filing_month if !missing(prison_imp)
*early cases model table
summarize prison_imposed imposed_days_incar GOP highest ncharge_count filing_month if file_year<2023 & !missing(prison_imp)


*APPENDIX B: Pairwise Comparisons of Predictive Margins Across Different Model Specifications

*Tables B1-B6
* Prison Imposed: Basic Model
logit prison_imposed i.apt_display  i.filing_month, cluster(judge_robust)
margins apt_display, pwcompare
* Prison Imposed: Charging Severity Model
logit prison_imposed i.apt_display highest ncharge_count   i.filing_month, cluster(judge_robust)
margins apt_display, pwcompare
* Prison Imposed: Early Cases Model
logit prison_imposed i.apt_display highest ncharge_count  i.filing_month if file_year<2023, cluster(judge_robust)
margins apt_display, pwcompare
* Prison Days: Basic Model
nbreg imposed_days_incar i.apt_display i.filing_month, cluster(judge_robust)
margins apt_display, pwcompare
* Prison Days: Charging Severity Model
nbreg imposed_days_incar i.apt_display highest ncharge_count  i.filing_month, cluster(judge_robust)
margins apt_display, pwcompare
* Prison Days: Early Cases Model
nbreg imposed_days_incar i.apt_display highest ncharge_count  i.filing_month if file_year<2023, cluster(judge_robust)
margins apt_display, pwcompare



*APPENDIX C: Alternative Tests of Judicial Sentencing Behavior: Considering Tenure Length as a Substitute

*TABLE C1
* Prison Imposed: Basic Model
logit prison_imposed judge_yr_apt i.filing_month, cluster(judge_robust)
*AIC
estat ic
* Prison Imposed: Charging Severity Model
logit prison_imposed judge_yr_apt   highest ncharge_count  i.filing_month , cluster(judge_robust)
*AIC
estat ic
* Prison Imposed: Early Cases Model
logit prison_imposed judge_yr_apt highest ncharge_count  i.filing_month if file_year<2023 , cluster(judge_robust)
*AIC
estat ic
*Prison Days: Basic Model
nbreg imposed_days_incar judge_yr_apt  i.filing_month, cluster(judge_robust)
*AIC
estat ic
* Prison Days: Charging Severity Model
nbreg imposed_days_incar judge_yr_apt highest ncharge_count   i.filing_month, cluster(judge_robust)
*AIC
estat ic
* Prison Days: Early Cases Model
nbreg imposed_days_incar judge_yr_apt highest ncharge_count   i.filing_month if file_year<2023, cluster(judge_robust)
*AIC
estat ic

*APPENDIX D: Modelling Pardons as a Case Outcome
*Appendix Table D1
*Basic: GOP
mlogit alt2_dv_pardon i.GOP  i.filing_month, cluster(judge_robust)
*AIC
estat ic
*Basic: Appointing President
mlogit alt2_dv_pardon i.apt_display i.filing_month, cluster(judge_robust)
*AIC
estat ic
*Charging Severity: GOP
mlogit alt2_dv_pardon i.GOP   highest ncharge_count  i.filing_month , cluster(judge_robust)
*AIC
estat ic
*Charging Severity: Appointing President
mlogit alt2_dv_pardon i.apt_display highest ncharge_count   i.filing_month, cluster(judge_robust)
*AIC
estat ic

